Global financial risk managers are looking to the US$ (United States Dollar) as a source of protection against the risks; therefore, the fiscal health of the US and the Americas is a key concern.
Before the COVID19 Crisis, and since the start of the new Millenium, the Federal deficit showed a weak baseline for what came after this data from 1981 to 2019 (Federal Reserve Economic Data, depicted by the Financial Times:
Source: Financial Times (2019)
COVID19 AND FISCAL CRISIS IN THE USA
As the COVID19 Crisis took place, the Manhattan Institute published an ISSUE BRIEF titled "Coronavirus Budget Projections: Escalating Deficits and Debt" (Brian Riedl, April 29, 2020). It showed the Economic perspectives on the Budget, the US Public Finances, and Tax Expectations:
Source: Mahattan Institute (2020)
DEFICIT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP IN THE USA
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget of the USA published its budget projections for the USA remarking the expectation of closing 2020 with a projected deficit lacking a just little more than 1 point for almost nearing 20% of GDP (18.7% for 2020):
Source: CRFB (2020)
The expectation of deficit for the lustrum (half-decade: 2020-2025) for the USA is 8.4%; therefore, taxes are expected, since CRFB Budget Projections stated (2020) that "Debt Will Exceed the Size of the Economy" in that year.
THE TOP 10 MOST INDEBTED COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD
For 2017, the USA was already the eighth-most indebted country in the World (ranked by Debt to GDP ratio), according to https://worldpopulationreview.com/:
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database.
After the crisis, data from United Nations shows the USA in the place 13th, among the top 25 most indebted countries, having Japan again as the top, with more debt ratio to GDP than Venezuela, but with 100 million more inhabitants in its country:
Source: United Nations (2021)
After Venezuela, with238% of Debt/GDP ratio, the 2nd American Country with more debt is Barbados, with 117%, followed by the USA with 107% in America, Jamaica with 94%, Belize with 93%, and Brazil with 90%, in the 24th place in the World.
USA Vs. the South American top 10 countries with less Debt/GDP ratio
Paraguay: 022%D/Y, 007MHab, Y=00035BUSD, Y/H=05KUSD, D/H=01KUSD
Chile: 027%D/Y, 019MHab, Y=00253BUSD, Y/H=13KUSD, D/H=04KUSD
Peru: 027%D/Y, 033MHab, Y=00202BUSD, Y/H=06KUSD, D/H=02KUSD
Colombia: 049%D/Y, 051MHab, Y=00271BUSD, Y/H=05KUSD, D/H=03KUSD
Ecuador: 049%D/Y, 018MHab, Y=00108BUSD, Y/H=06KUSD, D/H=03KUSD
Bolivia: 057%D/Y, 012MHab, Y=00037BUSD, Y/H=03KUSD, D/H=02KUSD
Guyana: 057%D/Y, 001MHab, Y=00006BUSD, Y/H=06KUSD, D/H=03KUSD
Uruguay: 071%D/Y, 004MHab, Y=00054BUSD, Y/H=14KUSD, D/H=10KUSD
Argentina: 076%D/Y, 045MHab, Y=00383BUSD, Y/H=09KUSD, D/H=07KUSD
Brazil: 090%D/Y, 213MHab, Y=01445BUSD, Y/H=07KUSD, D/H=06KUSD
USA: 107%D/Y, 330MHab, Y=20940BUSD, Y/H=64KUSD, D/H=69KUSD
The South American countries require investment in order to increase their productivity, income, and financial demand of resources via equity or debt. There are 6 countries with 3KUSD or less Debt per Habitant per year: Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Guyana, and Colombia.
With 69 Thousand USD per capita to pay yearly in terms of public debt per inhabitant, the fiscal health in North America, and in special in the USA is weaker than what can be seen in Central America, and South America.
Investors can focus on the top 5 countries in South America with less Debt/GDP ratio: Paraguay, Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador.
Could the South American Pacific be the top zone for investing during 2022?
For answering that question, let's start by understanding the fundamentals of their economic dynamics, by going back to 2015, a year when the IMF published a comprehensive analysis for that kind of analysis in their HISTORICAL PUBLIC DEBT DATABASE.
The ability to receive investment depends on the level of indebtedness that has already been achieved by a country. In this case, provided the fact that the 5 countries have a Debt/Product ratio that is lower than 50%, fiscal and financial space for public and private investment seems to be open.
On the other hand, without a heavy burden of debt, taxes do not seem to be a major concern in the coming years, while those countries recover from the COVID19 crisis, and probably will decide to ease the fiscal pressure (while other developed countries will have to increase it, on the other hand).
In special the countries that have their own currency will have to combat inflation, unemployment, and other problems.
IMF (2015): FINANCIAL FUNDAMENTALS IN:
PARAGUAY, CHILE, PERU, COLOMBIA, AND ECUADOR
PARAGUAY (IMF, 2015)
With a Historical Debt/GDP ratio lower than 25%, Paraguay receives near 500 Million USD in terms of direct investment in the country and invests near 100 Million USD abroad. Private inflows almost reach 1 Billion USD (excluding Direct Investment).
CHILE (IMF, 2015)
With a Historical Debt/GDP ratio lower than 18% (7 points less than Paraguay), Chile receives near 22000 Million USD in terms of direct investment in the country (44 more times more than the 500 Million of Paraguay) and invests near 12000 Million USD abroad (near 120 times more than the 100 Million USD of Paraguay). Private inflows almost reach 7 Billion USD (7 times more than the 1 Billion USD of Paraguay) excluding Direct Investment.
PERU (IMF, 2015)
With a Historical Debt/GDP ratio lower than 25% (7 points higher than the 18% of Chile, and similar to the 24% of Paraguay), Peru receives near 8000 Million USD in terms of direct investment in the country (a third of the 22000 Million received by Chile, that was 44 more times more than the 500 Million of Paraguay) and invests near 100 Million, 120 times less than the 12000 Million USD abroad of Chile (Peru is lower than Paraguay but almost equals the near 100 Million USD of the Paraguayans as investors). Private inflows almost reach 5 Billion USD (71% of the 7 Billion USD received by Chile, which had 7 times more than the 1 Billion USD of Paraguay) excluding Direct Investment.
COLOMBIA IMF (2015)
With a Historical Debt/GDP ratio near 50% (2.8 times higher than the 18% of Chile, and twice as much as the 24% of Paraguay and Peru), Colombia receives near 16000 Million USD in terms of direct investment in the country (2 times more than the 8000 Million USD that Peru receives, and 72% of the 22000 Million received by Chile, that was 44 more times more than the 500 Million of Paraguay) and invests near 4000 Million, 40 times more than the 100 Million invested by the Peruvians, a third of the 12000 Million USD invested abroad by the Chileans (Colombians invests 40 times more than Peru and Paraguay with their near 100 Million USD as investors). Private inflows almost reach 20 Billion USD, 4 times more than the 5 Billion USD received by Peru (Colombia receives 3 times more than the 7 Billion USD received by Chile, which had 7 times more than the 1 Billion USD of Paraguay) excluding Direct Investment.
ECUADOR IMF (2015)
With a Historical Debt/GDP ratio near 35%, 15 points lower than the 50% of Colombia (that was 2.8 times higher than the 18% of Chile), Ecuador has 1.4 times the 24% of debt/GDP ratio of Paraguay and Peru). Ecuador receives near 770 Million USD in Direct Investment, near 5% of the amount that Colombia receives with around 16000 Million USD in terms of direct investment in the country (Ecuador receives near 10% of the 8000 Million USD that Peru receives, and 3.5% of the 22000 Million received by Chile. Ecuador receives 6 times more than the 500 Million received by Paraguay) and invests 0 abroad, 100 Million less than Peru, that was a third of the 12000 Million USD invested abroad by the Chileans (Colombians invested 40 times more than Peru and Paraguay with their near 100 Million USD as investors). Private inflows in Ecuador almost reach 3 Billion USD, 15% of the 20 Billion received by Colombia, 60% of the 5 Billion USD received by Peru (Ecuador receives almost 40% of the 7 Billion USD received by Chile). Ecuador receives 3 times more than the 1 Billion USD of Paraguay) excluding Direct Investment.
In the case of Paraguay and Ecuador, in special, they seem not only to have more space and room for investment but also other conditions, like an appropriate policy environment compared to the one that Peru, Chile, and Colombia show after and before their political processes. In the case of Ecuador, it also has the advantage of its Dollarization and its lowest inflation in the region, as a fundamental of its economy (see the 2018 data in the following graph from América RETAIL):
Source: AMERICA RETAIL (2018)
After the COVID19 Crisis, this is the result in inflation in the different countries:
Macro-Economic Stability is a key factor, because inflation is related to devaluation, creating foreign exchange risk. Ecuador is the only country that has zero risk in that sense because of its dollarized economy, which at this moment is helped by the difference between its internal inflation and the inflation in the USA, where the consumer price index climbed 7% in 2021 (the largest 12-month gain since June 1982, according to Labor Department data released last week).
As Bloomberg has mentioned: "U.S. consumer prices soared last year by the most in nearly four decades, sapping the purchasing power of American families and setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to begin hiking interest rates as soon as March".
ONE FINAL THOUGHT
While Omicron develops, and 2022 starts, the USA and the Americas seem to be a continent needing a new deal. The USA is no longer the safe refuge for investors because of the crisis (as happens in every major market).
This document has studied debt, deficit, expected taxes, and its relation to revenues, plus inflation and raises expected in the interest rates, devaluation, and other factors that show disorder and can be understood under one single headline: fiscal costs of investments (business-as-usual under study by risk managers).
The South Pacific Region of America, and in special Ecuador seem to be consistently approaching the required status for becoming an investors' refuge, during the coming years.
The ways under which fiscal affairs are driven will be a major concern of nearly every major bank and firm in the world, and professionals.
Please, do not hesitate to ask for information and knowledge about the key statal indicators of American countries, and their ability to anticipate, respond and adapt to critical risk issues:
(*) ROBERTO F. SALAZAR-CORDOVA
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